EDMONTON - Over the past few weeks, many Canadians outside Alberta watched uneasily as the Wildrose Party under leader Danielle Smith promised to build a political "firewall" around the province, promote unfettered oilsands development, fight against Canada's federal notion of equalization payments and defend clearly homophobic and antiethnic commentary.
This upstart political party born out of the rib of the entrenched Progressive Conservative Party was threatening to end the 41-year PC dynasty in Canada's richest province.
Right up until election day on Monday, polls had Smith leading Wildrose to a historic victory. Instead, PC leader Alison Redford, who had had to battle accusations of profligacy and entitlement, led her party to a comfortable majority of 61 seats out of a total of 87, with 17 going to Wildrose. In terms of the popular vote, PC took 44 per cent to Wildrose's 34 per cent.
In some important ways a soul sister to the social-conservative wing of the Harper government in Ottawa, Wildrose would have worked to loosen Ottawa's already light reins over environmental policies and the regulatory framework for oil and gas projects. Smith's insistence that the science of climate change remains unproven - her total denial of the credibility of the science - reinforced a view that Albertans put their economy before the welfare of the environment and Canada's international reputation.
Redford's victory signals a potential new era in provincial-federal relations. Alberta is the country's economic powerhouse. Its petro wealth is the motor driving a westward shift in Canada's population and economic centre of gravity. What happens in Alberta today matters to the rest of the country in a way that wasn't the case a couple of decades ago. Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty has warned that his province, the country's manufacturing centre, is suffering because Alberta's petro potential is driving up the value of the Canadian dollar and making manufacturing in this country less competitive.
Redford struck the right note after her election win when she said that the electoral choice had been between erecting walls and building bridges and that Albertans chose to build bridges. At a time when its wealth and accompanying political muscle could allow it to play the heavy in Confederation, Alberta under Redford is talking about connecting more closely with the rest of the country. This should be seen as an invitation to work together toward goals many Canadians want accomplished, including a genuine effort to meet the Harper government's goal of a 17-per-cent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2020.
There was more good news from the election results. Voters' repudiation of intolerance within Wildrose will do wonders to combat the stereotype of Alberta's redneck reputation.
Pollsters, on the other hand, have nothing to celebrate. They were wrong, spectacularly so. And they need to figure out why. In fact, this is just the most recent example of polling not being in sync with election results. While more study is needed into potential methodological difficulties with modern polling, it will also be interesting to probe just how much last-minute strategic voting took place among traditional Liberal and New Democratic Party supporters to give Redford the edge over Smith.
The Alberta election also showed that low voter turnout continues to plague Canadian politics. For the past 30 years, voter turnout in Alberta has ranged around the 50-percent mark; and even with two dynamic female leaders competing for top provincial office in Canada's richest province, only 56 per cent of eligible voters cared to vote. This compares with 56 per cent in the last Quebec general election, which was the lowest Quebec turnout since 1927. With almost half of voters not bothering to turn out, every vote counted in Alberta on Monday night. A majority of the people who cared clearly sided with Redford.
This upstart political party born out of the rib of the entrenched Progressive Conservative Party was threatening to end the 41-year PC dynasty in Canada's richest province.
Right up until election day on Monday, polls had Smith leading Wildrose to a historic victory. Instead, PC leader Alison Redford, who had had to battle accusations of profligacy and entitlement, led her party to a comfortable majority of 61 seats out of a total of 87, with 17 going to Wildrose. In terms of the popular vote, PC took 44 per cent to Wildrose's 34 per cent.
In some important ways a soul sister to the social-conservative wing of the Harper government in Ottawa, Wildrose would have worked to loosen Ottawa's already light reins over environmental policies and the regulatory framework for oil and gas projects. Smith's insistence that the science of climate change remains unproven - her total denial of the credibility of the science - reinforced a view that Albertans put their economy before the welfare of the environment and Canada's international reputation.
Redford's victory signals a potential new era in provincial-federal relations. Alberta is the country's economic powerhouse. Its petro wealth is the motor driving a westward shift in Canada's population and economic centre of gravity. What happens in Alberta today matters to the rest of the country in a way that wasn't the case a couple of decades ago. Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty has warned that his province, the country's manufacturing centre, is suffering because Alberta's petro potential is driving up the value of the Canadian dollar and making manufacturing in this country less competitive.
Redford struck the right note after her election win when she said that the electoral choice had been between erecting walls and building bridges and that Albertans chose to build bridges. At a time when its wealth and accompanying political muscle could allow it to play the heavy in Confederation, Alberta under Redford is talking about connecting more closely with the rest of the country. This should be seen as an invitation to work together toward goals many Canadians want accomplished, including a genuine effort to meet the Harper government's goal of a 17-per-cent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2020.
There was more good news from the election results. Voters' repudiation of intolerance within Wildrose will do wonders to combat the stereotype of Alberta's redneck reputation.
Pollsters, on the other hand, have nothing to celebrate. They were wrong, spectacularly so. And they need to figure out why. In fact, this is just the most recent example of polling not being in sync with election results. While more study is needed into potential methodological difficulties with modern polling, it will also be interesting to probe just how much last-minute strategic voting took place among traditional Liberal and New Democratic Party supporters to give Redford the edge over Smith.
The Alberta election also showed that low voter turnout continues to plague Canadian politics. For the past 30 years, voter turnout in Alberta has ranged around the 50-percent mark; and even with two dynamic female leaders competing for top provincial office in Canada's richest province, only 56 per cent of eligible voters cared to vote. This compares with 56 per cent in the last Quebec general election, which was the lowest Quebec turnout since 1927. With almost half of voters not bothering to turn out, every vote counted in Alberta on Monday night. A majority of the people who cared clearly sided with Redford.
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