EDMONTON — Alison Redford’s Conservatives decisively turned back a strong challenge from the Wildrose on Monday, and the premier now faces a challenge to build a party that will accommodate the demands of new left-of-centre voters who piled on the PC train.
In a strong 62-seat victory, Redford, PC leader for only seven months, also salvaged her own leadership that was under fire over controversies such as the no-meet committee and shaky start to the PC campaign.
Redford’s victory only solidified in the last couple of days when undecided voters and Liberals turned to the PCs, said Chaldeans Mensah, political science professor at MacEwan University. These voters saw missteps in the Wildrose campaign, such as the socially conservative views expressed by a few candidates, that sent them to the Tories.
“It’s a classic case study in strategic voting,” Mensah said.
“But the progressive voters didn’t give the Tories a blank cheque. People want change but were uncomfortable with the Wildrose.”
The victory is also a vindication of Redford’s call for change, a campaign she started when she made her run for the leadership but which was not fully embraced by the Conservative caucus, most of whom did not support Redford’s leadership.
In fact, a Redford government will bring more change to Alberta than a Wildrose government would have, predicted Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
Wildrose would have taken the province “back to 1994” to the familiar turf of Ralph Klein with deficit cutting, smaller government and energy rebate cheques to each Albertan, Bratt said.
Redford’s agenda is looking outward to the national stage and she has definite ideas for new policies on health care, education and the ill-defined national energy strategy. “Her fight will be with her own party,” said Bratt.
The victory does present some challenges for Redford, who now runs a PC party that that will have to settle in a new place on the political spectrum — one that not all Tories may be comfortable with.
The issue is illuminated in a joke making the rounds in Calgary. The Liberals can’t get elected unless they change their name, goes the joke. Now they have a new name — Progressive Conservative.
Or, as Edmonton Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman said Monday night: “The Tories have a lot to thank us for.”
With Monday’s defeat of right-of-centre heavyweight Ted Morton, Redford lost some of the conservative credentials that made the PCs a big-tent party.
The election, it seems, could signal an end to the big-tent tradition that began in the Lougheed era that kept left and right under the same roof. A new realignment of the political landscape, more polarized, has the Wildrose with 17 seats established firmly on the right and the PCs moving to the centre.
If the Redford Tories decide they want to end the civil war and get back to the big tent, there may be pressure from longtime Tories to move right. In that scenario, provincial politics could follow the split in the federal Conservatives in the 1990s after the rise of the Reform party in the West. It took a decade of wrangling to unite the right and in the new Harper Conservative party, the old red Tories disappeared.
Vitor Marciano, Wildrose campaign manager and a Senate-election candidate, says he sees little chance the federal scenario — a move to unite the right — will play out in Alberta, especially if Redford stays at the helm for any length of time.
“She has no interest in uniting the right and she will be elected by centre-left voters, Liberals and New Democrats,” said Marciano.
“More likely, if we form government, the blue Tories will gravitate to us and reds will go to the Liberals.”
Redford’s victory is more remarkable given that going into the election campaign, the Conservatives were suffering brand fatigue and were hurt by some “bad political judgment” on Redford’s part during the spring legislature session, said Bratt.
Redford had a 20-point lead in the polls in February, Bratt noted, but ignored the advice of many in the party to call an election. That lead dissipated after a series of poor decisions, the chief one being her decision to delay the election until after the spring session and a budget, he said. That left some of the Tory caucus, most of whom did not support Redford’s leadership, quietly unhappy with her leadership.
Redford had a surprisingly short-lived honeymoon and the voters’ mood soon became “I just want the Tories out.” The Wildrose was well organized to exploit that discontent with a well-run campaign that hammered on Tory arrogance, said Bratt.
But despite the rocky campaign, Redford proved a tough campaigner, said Peter McCormick, a political commentator from Lethbridge.
“When many people would have left the room, she did not lose her nerve, she stood firm and stuck to her message” even after many Tories had written her off, he said.
Redford also took over a Conservative party that was already divided, said Dave Taras, a political scientist at Mount Royal University.
“The Tory party had in a large part left Redford before she took over the leadership,” said Taras. A major sign of trouble was the low turnout in the leadership race — only about half the voters of 2006, he noted.
In a strong 62-seat victory, Redford, PC leader for only seven months, also salvaged her own leadership that was under fire over controversies such as the no-meet committee and shaky start to the PC campaign.
Redford’s victory only solidified in the last couple of days when undecided voters and Liberals turned to the PCs, said Chaldeans Mensah, political science professor at MacEwan University. These voters saw missteps in the Wildrose campaign, such as the socially conservative views expressed by a few candidates, that sent them to the Tories.
“It’s a classic case study in strategic voting,” Mensah said.
“But the progressive voters didn’t give the Tories a blank cheque. People want change but were uncomfortable with the Wildrose.”
The victory is also a vindication of Redford’s call for change, a campaign she started when she made her run for the leadership but which was not fully embraced by the Conservative caucus, most of whom did not support Redford’s leadership.
In fact, a Redford government will bring more change to Alberta than a Wildrose government would have, predicted Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
Wildrose would have taken the province “back to 1994” to the familiar turf of Ralph Klein with deficit cutting, smaller government and energy rebate cheques to each Albertan, Bratt said.
Redford’s agenda is looking outward to the national stage and she has definite ideas for new policies on health care, education and the ill-defined national energy strategy. “Her fight will be with her own party,” said Bratt.
The victory does present some challenges for Redford, who now runs a PC party that that will have to settle in a new place on the political spectrum — one that not all Tories may be comfortable with.
The issue is illuminated in a joke making the rounds in Calgary. The Liberals can’t get elected unless they change their name, goes the joke. Now they have a new name — Progressive Conservative.
Or, as Edmonton Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman said Monday night: “The Tories have a lot to thank us for.”
With Monday’s defeat of right-of-centre heavyweight Ted Morton, Redford lost some of the conservative credentials that made the PCs a big-tent party.
The election, it seems, could signal an end to the big-tent tradition that began in the Lougheed era that kept left and right under the same roof. A new realignment of the political landscape, more polarized, has the Wildrose with 17 seats established firmly on the right and the PCs moving to the centre.
If the Redford Tories decide they want to end the civil war and get back to the big tent, there may be pressure from longtime Tories to move right. In that scenario, provincial politics could follow the split in the federal Conservatives in the 1990s after the rise of the Reform party in the West. It took a decade of wrangling to unite the right and in the new Harper Conservative party, the old red Tories disappeared.
Vitor Marciano, Wildrose campaign manager and a Senate-election candidate, says he sees little chance the federal scenario — a move to unite the right — will play out in Alberta, especially if Redford stays at the helm for any length of time.
“She has no interest in uniting the right and she will be elected by centre-left voters, Liberals and New Democrats,” said Marciano.
“More likely, if we form government, the blue Tories will gravitate to us and reds will go to the Liberals.”
Redford’s victory is more remarkable given that going into the election campaign, the Conservatives were suffering brand fatigue and were hurt by some “bad political judgment” on Redford’s part during the spring legislature session, said Bratt.
Redford had a 20-point lead in the polls in February, Bratt noted, but ignored the advice of many in the party to call an election. That lead dissipated after a series of poor decisions, the chief one being her decision to delay the election until after the spring session and a budget, he said. That left some of the Tory caucus, most of whom did not support Redford’s leadership, quietly unhappy with her leadership.
Redford had a surprisingly short-lived honeymoon and the voters’ mood soon became “I just want the Tories out.” The Wildrose was well organized to exploit that discontent with a well-run campaign that hammered on Tory arrogance, said Bratt.
But despite the rocky campaign, Redford proved a tough campaigner, said Peter McCormick, a political commentator from Lethbridge.
“When many people would have left the room, she did not lose her nerve, she stood firm and stuck to her message” even after many Tories had written her off, he said.
Redford also took over a Conservative party that was already divided, said Dave Taras, a political scientist at Mount Royal University.
“The Tory party had in a large part left Redford before she took over the leadership,” said Taras. A major sign of trouble was the low turnout in the leadership race — only about half the voters of 2006, he noted.
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