EDMONTON - The Edmonton area is facing a population explosion that could see it grow by more than one million people over the next 35 years.
By 2047, the population will likely range from 1.8 million to 2.3 million people, compared to the current 1.2 million, depending on whether a low-, medium- or high-growth scenario occurs, a recent consultant’s study suggests.
The figures, produced for the Capital Region Board, are much higher than the approximately 1.7 million population expected in the board’s last study done during the 2009 world financial downturn.
“The pressures for future growth today are significantly greater than they were in 2009,” says the report by Stokes Economic Consulting Inc. and Strategic Projections Inc.
“The increased demands for growth faced by the region today are likely to impact every municipality in the region.”
By far the biggest boom is foreseen south of Edmonton in Beaumont, where over the study period the population of 14,000 will likely climb to between 40,000 and about 62,400.
That would make it the sixth largest of the region’s 24 municipalities, ahead of places it now trails such as Parkland County, Sturgeon County and Fort Saskatchewan.
“Beaumont jumps off the page. You say ‘Holy crap, is that what’s going to happen?’ ” St. Albert Mayor Nolan Crouse, chairman of the Capital Region Board, said Friday.
“Beaumont is a pretty choice place to live right now because it’s commutable to Edmonton and it’s a small-town feel. It’s pretty hard to imagine they’re going to continue to grow at that rate, but that’s what some projections are.”
Marc Landry, the town’s chief administrative officer, said the population went up about 48 per cent from 2006 to 2011, and their own growth study had similar results to the findings of the region’s consultants.
They more than doubled their reservoir, plan to twin a big sewer line and upgraded 50th Street into Edmonton to prepare for the extra residents, he said.
“When you’re looking at communities in North America, or even Canada, that had growth impediments because of their major infrastructure, we’re making sure that does not happen to Beaumont.”
Big population increases are also predicted in such centres as Fort Saskatchewan (43,018 to 62,330 from 20,475), Stony Plain (33,538 to 48,334 from 16,268) and the City of Leduc (47,378 to 66,137 from 25,482).
Edmonton is forecast to have 1.2 million to 1.5 million residents, up from 818,000 and one of the region’s lowest growth rates.
However, more people can lead to more friction between municipalities.
Beaumont started a process last fall to annex 1,500 hectares from Leduc County so it would have room for the next 50 years, a move the county described as “a hostile land grab.”
Edmonton might also feel concerned about being surrounded by communities which are almost all projected to gain residents more quickly than their biggest neighbour, Crouse said.
“If that’s what happens, Edmonton becomes slowly trapped over time by being constrained within the doughnut hole.”
The figures, produced for the Capital Region Board, are much higher than the approximately 1.7 million population expected in the board’s last study done during the 2009 world financial downturn.
“The pressures for future growth today are significantly greater than they were in 2009,” says the report by Stokes Economic Consulting Inc. and Strategic Projections Inc.
“The increased demands for growth faced by the region today are likely to impact every municipality in the region.”
By far the biggest boom is foreseen south of Edmonton in Beaumont, where over the study period the population of 14,000 will likely climb to between 40,000 and about 62,400.
That would make it the sixth largest of the region’s 24 municipalities, ahead of places it now trails such as Parkland County, Sturgeon County and Fort Saskatchewan.
“Beaumont jumps off the page. You say ‘Holy crap, is that what’s going to happen?’ ” St. Albert Mayor Nolan Crouse, chairman of the Capital Region Board, said Friday.
“Beaumont is a pretty choice place to live right now because it’s commutable to Edmonton and it’s a small-town feel. It’s pretty hard to imagine they’re going to continue to grow at that rate, but that’s what some projections are.”
Marc Landry, the town’s chief administrative officer, said the population went up about 48 per cent from 2006 to 2011, and their own growth study had similar results to the findings of the region’s consultants.
They more than doubled their reservoir, plan to twin a big sewer line and upgraded 50th Street into Edmonton to prepare for the extra residents, he said.
“When you’re looking at communities in North America, or even Canada, that had growth impediments because of their major infrastructure, we’re making sure that does not happen to Beaumont.”
Big population increases are also predicted in such centres as Fort Saskatchewan (43,018 to 62,330 from 20,475), Stony Plain (33,538 to 48,334 from 16,268) and the City of Leduc (47,378 to 66,137 from 25,482).
Edmonton is forecast to have 1.2 million to 1.5 million residents, up from 818,000 and one of the region’s lowest growth rates.
However, more people can lead to more friction between municipalities.
Beaumont started a process last fall to annex 1,500 hectares from Leduc County so it would have room for the next 50 years, a move the county described as “a hostile land grab.”
Edmonton might also feel concerned about being surrounded by communities which are almost all projected to gain residents more quickly than their biggest neighbour, Crouse said.
“If that’s what happens, Edmonton becomes slowly trapped over time by being constrained within the doughnut hole.”
The study found the number of jobs in the region for every 1,000 residents will drop about 10 per cent, to 446, over the next 35 years as baby boomers retire and the proportion of working-age residents drops.
The regional population and employment study is required for growth planning, but the board has sent it back to staff for more work before it gives final approval.
While most members wanted the results double-checked, and the current figure for St. Albert is too high, Crouse said in general he doesn’t expect the study’s main findings to change.
The authors based their conclusions on indications about the growth pressures expected by 14 municipalities with 97 per cent of the regional population, and other information.
But Coun. Ed Gibbons, chairman of the board’s housing committee and Edmonton’s alternate member to Mayor Stephen Mandel, said he’s worried the projections might be inaccurate based on population “blips” in the last decade.
“I hate to think we’re going to get that information out and over-heat the (real estate) market … We should just slow down a little bit and look at these figures more realistically,” he said.
“With $28 billion of industrial announcements in the (northeast) Heartland alone, wouldn’t Fort Saskatchewan take a bigger growth than Beaumont?”
The regional population and employment study is required for growth planning, but the board has sent it back to staff for more work before it gives final approval.
While most members wanted the results double-checked, and the current figure for St. Albert is too high, Crouse said in general he doesn’t expect the study’s main findings to change.
The authors based their conclusions on indications about the growth pressures expected by 14 municipalities with 97 per cent of the regional population, and other information.
But Coun. Ed Gibbons, chairman of the board’s housing committee and Edmonton’s alternate member to Mayor Stephen Mandel, said he’s worried the projections might be inaccurate based on population “blips” in the last decade.
“I hate to think we’re going to get that information out and over-heat the (real estate) market … We should just slow down a little bit and look at these figures more realistically,” he said.
“With $28 billion of industrial announcements in the (northeast) Heartland alone, wouldn’t Fort Saskatchewan take a bigger growth than Beaumont?”
